Investors Double Down on September Fed Rate Cut Bets After Mild CPI Data
Market participants are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut for September following July's inflation data, which showed only a modest 0.2% monthly increase in the consumer price index. The figures came in largely as expected, alleviating concerns about tariff-related price pressures.
Traders now see a 98% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, up from 89% earlier in the day. Two-year Treasury yields dipped to 3.729%, reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations.
The soft inflation print follows disappointing employment data, creating a dual mandate justification for easing. "The Fed appears to be missing its labor target more than its inflation target," noted Andrew Szczurowski of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.